MACROECONOMICS

• E. Gurvich — How Accurate are Macroeconomic and Fiscal Forecasts?

• V. Milov — Can Russia Become an Energy Superpower?
• V. Klinov — Contemporary Tendencies of Engineering Industries Development
• E. Basalaeva — Problems of Promoting Competitive Agriculture

• A. Manakov — Forestry: The Mechanisms of the Accordance of the Rights of User Analysis

• I. Rozmainsky — "Investor Myopia" in Post Keynesian Theory and in the Russian Economy
• I. Levina — On the Relationship between the Financial Sector and the Real Economy

• Mst. Afanasiev, I. Krivogov — Modernization of the Public Finance in Russia
• V. Nazarov — Perspectives of Reforming the System of Interbudget Relations in Russia (in the Light of the International Experience)

• O. Matsnev — Attracting Extra-budget Investments in the Housing Sphere
• N. Kresnikova — Development of Land Mortgage in Agriculture
• M. Fedorova — Institutions of Nonprofit Credit in the Housing Sphere

• I. Gerasimchuk — Ecological Practice of Transnational Corporations

Abstracts

The quality of fiscal forecasts in 1999—2005 is examined. Substantial and systematic error in the key macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts is found. Independent forecasts generally prove to be even less accurate. One can conclude that fiscal planning was not based on conservative approach, envisaging purposeful underestimation of budget revenues. Full effect of erroneous prediction of external variables is calculated, taking into account direct, indirect impact, and implicit influence of stabilization measures by the government and the Central Bank. We find that shifts in exchange rate and inflation in response to increase in oil and gas prices set limits to spending windfall gains, as either the budget looses revenues due to the ruble appreciation or outlays are deflated with price growth.

Recently the idea of transforming Russia into an "energy superpower" has become quite popular. But is this a definition of economic nature? And if yes, can Russia reach this status and benefit from it from the economic point of view? The article argues that this idea is mostly of a political, non-economic character, and that possible actions associated with proclaiming Russia an ¬"energy superpower" cannot bring economic benefits to the country. Besides, the present policy model in the energy sector chosen by the Russian authorities can lead to negative results.

On the basis of broad use of information and communication technologies engineering industries play a crucial role in solving major problems of social and economic development. The system of taxation in the leading countries provides for maximum reserving of the natural rather than the technology rent. The problems of developing engineering industries in Russia and bridging the gap in efficiency with advanced countries can be solved by means of the state budget policy on the basis of heavy taxing of productive resources. At the same time lower tax rates should be established for enterprises in manufacturing and construction providing for tax exemptions of operating surplus used for gross fixed capital formation inside the country as well as for R&D and personal training.

The article is devoted to the efficiency of agriculture financing in Russian Federation as one of priority national projects. The author focuses on several important problems including low personal income, price disparity in industry and agriculture, decrease in the share of domestic agriculture production in the internal market, prospects of agricultural sphere as a whole. More effective forms of expenditures distribution are recommended.

The author considers the ways in which the rights of user of the forestry in Russia are granted. The article analyzes the international experience of forest auctions and describes the main problems of the auction design.

The article examines the issues concerning links between institutional economics, Post Keynesian economics, models of endogenous growth and transition economics. The author considers interrelations between ineffective institutional environment, too high degree of fundamental uncertainty, investor myopia and resulting decrease in investment and "negative" growth in Russia’s transitional economy.

The article presents the results of the research of the decoupling of the financial sector from the real economy. The author examines key theoretical approaches to the analysis of the aforementioned problem emphasizing the main features of this phenomenon and considering the consequences of the decoupling from the point of view of the modern economic development.

Russian public finance reforming under conditions of substantial increase of budget expenditures is analyzed in the article. Basic directions of the budget reform are considered that are formulated in the variant of the Budget Code, which is currently still under discussion. The focus is made on results-based budgeting and federal investment programs management.

The attempts to reconstruct the instruments of interbudget relations take place in all federations. In Russia such attempts are especially popular due to the short history of intergovernmental relations. Thus the review of the ¬international experience of managing interbudget relations to provide economic and social welfare can be useful for present-day Russia. The author develops models of intergovernmental relations from the point of view of making decisions about budget authorities’ distribution. The models that can be better applied in the Russian case are demonstrated.

The issues of attracting "long" financial resources in the housing market are considered in the article. Different mechanisms of the financing of housing construction are analyzed. The mortgage lending scheme on the base of non-government pension funds is proposed. The urgency of using housing certificates for extra-budget housing financing is noted.

The study focuses on the issues of development of land mortgage lending in Russia based on agricultural land as a security. The experience of other countries and institutional aspects of the Russian system of land mortgage are analyzed. In particular, data on financial schemes of land mortgage are presented as well as basic contracts of land mortgage transactions. The peculiarities of the assessment of mortgage value of land that is the subject of mortgage are considered.

The article considers new forms of the state housing policy. The author argues to establish the federal special fund to support housing mortgage debtors,¬ to complete Tax Code of the Russian Federation with preferences for such debtors, housing cooperatives and their members.