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MACROECONOMIC STUDIES N. V. Orlova, N. A. Lavrova — Potential output as a reflection of Russian economy perspectives A. N. Deryugin, I. A. Sokolov — Prospects for the use of the "model budget" in the distribution of equalization grants in Russia

• V. D. Gazman — Overcoming stereotypes of renewable energy

Abstracts

The article considers key factors determining potential output growth in Russia: capital input, labor market and total factor productivity (TFP). Within the framework of potential output analysis, the structural growth is assessed via (1) production function, (2) natural interest rate approach and (3) Okun’s law. The results of authors’ models indicate the structural slowdown of Russian economic growth to 0.7—1.3% per year, which stays below consensus view of 1.5%. This deviation is partially explained by the effect of the sanctions against Russia: the results of authors’ model suggest that the cost of sanctions totaled 0.3 pp of potential output growth per year.

JEL: E6, E01, G20.
Keywords: production function, potential output, Okun’s law, sanctions.

TThe paper analyzes the impact of the "model budget" on the problems of intergovernmental relations in the Russian Federation: a high proportion of expenditure obligations of regional and local budgets and a high degree of interregional inequality in fiscal capacity and socio-economic development. It was concluded that the planned broader use of the "model budget" will not solve the problem of unfunded mandates and will lead first to a significant reduction in incentives for regional authorities to develop the territorial revenue base, and then to economic slowdown in the country. As an alternative approach to improving intergovernmental relations, options are being considered for adjusting the parameters of the equalization transfers distribution formula, the procedure for determining their total volume and calculating the budget expenditure index. In solving the problem of unfunded mandates, an equally important role is given to the procedure for preparing a financial and economic rationale for draft laws.

JEL: H77.
Keywords: grants, budget, regional development.

The article analyzes the most important institutional and structural changes in the agriculture of Russia in 2006—2016. The research has shown that the policy of reducing state participation in agricultural enterprises, increasing the concentration of property and management in the hands of a smaller number of individuals, growing share of agricultural organizations and farmers in the production of agricultural products, as well as the state support of agricultural holdings have played a positive role in the development of production. Structural changes in land use and land ownership of agricultural organizations are taking place. An attempt has been made to evaluate these changes. As the research has revealed, structural changes that ensured the growth of production had some negative consequences: the expansion of the activities of agricultural holdings led not only to the reduction in agricultural employment, but also to the decline of the rural population; the owners and managers rather than workers have become the main beneficiaries of the growth of revenues and incomes in organizations and redistribution of value added.

JEL: Q12, Q13, Q15, Q18.
Keywords: agrarian structure, agroholdings, family farms, integration, concentration of capital, agricultural policy, agriculture.

In this paper, we assess the effects of agricultural state support of corporate farms on their revenues from agricultural production sales in 14 Russian regions that differ in technology, environment and institutional conditions. In addition to the direct effect of the state support, the indirect effects via labor and capital are revealed. For this purpose, we identify production functions and statistical models of production factors for each of these regions separately. We find out diverse effects of the state support on revenues among the regions. Positive effects prevail. Negative effects are mainly caused by labor reductions that follow subsidy inflows. Another cause of negative effects is the soft budget constraints phenomenon.

JEL: Q18, H25.
Keywords: agriculture, subsidies, corporate farms, interregional difference, agricultural policy.

The paper analyzes the possibilities of improving the Russian policy of import substitution using the potential of the EAEU. A concrete analysis was carried out for the branches of the agro-industrial complex, where the greatest success was achieved in import substitution. There is a need for smart selective import substitution, the most important direction of which is the export-oriented one. This will improve the competitiveness of Russia and the EAEU as a whole in the global economy and will also promote the deepening of mutual ties of the EAEU countries. The main ways of solving this problem are shown.

JEL: E22, F15, O11, O19, Q01, Q02, Q17.
Keywords: import substitution, agro-industrial complex, competitiveness, Eurasian Economic Union, integration.

Using published estimates of inequality for two countries (Russia and USA) the paper demonstrates that inequality measuring still remains in the state of "statistical cacophony". Under this condition, it seems at least untimely to pass categorical normative judgments and offer radical political advice for governments. Moreover, the mere practice to draw normative conclusions from quantitative data is ethically invalid since ordinary people (non-intellectuals) tend to evaluate­ wealth and incomes as admissible or inadmissible not on the basis of their size but basing on whether they were obtained under observance or violations of the rules of "fair play". The paper concludes that a current large-scale ideological campaign of "struggle against inequality" has been unleashed by left-wing intellectuals in order to strengthen even more their discursive power over the public.

JEL: D30, D31, D60, F60.
Keywords: inequality, income, wealth, ethics, ideology.

The paper presents contemporary economic discussions about the problems of inequality and the actual circumstances than make it difficult to take into account not only statistical, but also the socio-political conjuncture of wealth and income divergence. The paper concludes that objective and complex analysis of inequality faces methodological problems — such as discrepancies in the tools for measuring inequality or fundamental disregard for interdisciplinary research perspectives, — and also with disregard of the "subjective" component of the inequality perception.

JEL: D31, D63, E21.
Keyworlds: inequality, economics of inequality, politics of inequality.

The article considers prerequisites for the formation of a new paradigm in the energy sector. The factors that may affect the imminent change of leadership among the energy generation are analyzed. The variability of the projects of creation and functioning of power stations is examined. The focus is made on problematic aspects of the new generation, especially, storage and supply of energy, achieving a system of parity that ensures balance in pricing generations. The author substantiates the principles of forming system of parities arising when comparing traditional and new generations. The article presents the results of an empirical analysis of the 215 projects for the construction of facilities for renewable energy. The significance and direction of the impact of these factors on the growth in investment volumes of transactions are determined. The author considers leasing as an effective financial instrument for overcoming stereotypes of renewable energy and as a promising direction for accelerated implementation of investment projects.

JEL: G21, G23, G24, G32, O16, Q20, Q35, Q42, Q57.
Keyworlds: energy, renewable energy, fossil energy, financial leasing, leveraged finance, project financing.

The article describes the features of the current stage of development of financial technologies. This process has become a reaction to the post-crisis tightening of regulatory requirements for traditional financial institutions and increasing credit risks. The introduction of financial technologies that broaden the availability of financial services not only creates conditions for increasing business activity, but also forms challenges for traditional banks and monetary authorities. The article discusses the risks of the evolving digital (cashless) society, as well as the possibility and consequences of the emergence of central banks’ digital money.

JEL: E52, E58, F30, G51.
Keyworlds: financial technology, traditional bank, central bank, financial intermediation, digitalization indexes.

For more than half a century the growing dependence of Russia on crude oil production and exports, thus exhausting its national oil resources, has been observed. The country can get caught up in the staples trap — running out of own oil resources, with neither money to finance imports nor national import-substituting production. So in the coming 25 years Russia is challenged to seek a proper solution, given that oil production will be declining. What is more, Russia will have to address the challenge under pretty tough circumstances, including turbulent oil prices, the burden of economic sanctions and reduction in the volume of employment. Will Russia, as a result, face just another transformation crisis similar to the bitter experience of 1990s? What alternative sources of energy can be found to replace oil? The author is searching for the way to get out of the staples trap and presents an optimistic scenario. Being one of the top oil-producing countries, Russia will be the first to face the depletion of national oil resources, so its experience in elaborating viable ways to overcome oil dependence may be instructive to other oil-producers and contribute to the general theory of economic growth.

JEL: E23, E28, J25, O11.
Keyworlds: oil, economic growth, imports substitution, transformation crisis, economic sanctions.