• O. Kochetkova, R. Nureev - The Number of Vice-premiers as an Indicator of Russian Economy Conditions in the 1990s

     Ownership concentration in Russia's economy is analyzed in the given chapter of the World Bank Memorandum on the basis of the specially constructed database on ownership and control. The results of the study show high degree of ownership concentration in the Russian industry but it varies across sectors. The holdings of large owners with national significance are concentrated in some strategic sectors, while in other sectors ownership concentration is not so high. Our data reveals no evidence that the firms controlled by Russian large private owners are more productive then those of other private owners. Firms controlled by regional private owners and foreign investors are more likely to receive preferential treatment on the regional level but large business groups may reap more benefits from such treatment that negatively affects functioning of other enterprises. A rule-based system is necessary to safeguard competition on all levels of the economy. Nothing in our data provides an argument for re-nationalization in any shape or form.

     The paper considers critically the methodology and main conclusions of the World Bank study on the concentration of ownership and control in the Russian economy. The authors discuss methodological problems of the study and stress its importance for understanding trends of economic development in Russia in the last years. At the same time the risks of market monopolization and "state capture" by the biggest private companies are overestimated in the World Bank report. Recent economic growth has been closely connected with the activity of leading financial-industrial groups. For successful economic development Russia - as a big country but a small economy - needs new large companies able to compete in the global market. For "growing" of such businesses the country requires institutions of development and new industrial policy taking into account successful experience of the middle-income countries like Chile, Israel, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea.

     This paper develops a framework for analysis of international competitive strategies at country and firm levels under export-oriented growth. The framework accounts for technical progress and competitors' reaction. It is argued that attracting foreign private investment is the least profitable strategy for Russia, while copying East Asian "catching-up" strategies is shown to be infeasible given the present state of science and technology. The conditions for implementation of the strategy of leadership in R&D-intensive industries are formulated.

     The influence of globalization on international competitiveness is considered in the article. Two strategies of economic growth are pointed out: the low road, that is producing more at lower cost and lower wages, with increasingly intensive exploitation of labor and environment, and the high road, that is upgrading capabilities in order to produce better basing on knowledge. Restrictions for developing countries trying to reach global competitiveness are formulated. Special attention is paid to the concept of upgrading and opportunities of joining transnational value chains. The importance of learning and forming social and political institutions for successful upgrading of the economy is stressed.

     The author analyzes the processes of modern economic growth and stimulating macroeconomic policy proceeding from the generalization of institutional problems of economic systems transformation. The foundations of economic and monetary policy are studied. For that author suggests a new evolutionary viewpoint on interactions between innovators and conservatives.

     Benefits of using social-psychological approach in the analysis of labor motivations are considered in the article. Classification of employees as objects of economic analysis is offered: "the economic man", "the man of the organization", "the social man" and "the asocial man". Related models give the opportunity to predict behavior of the firm in different situations, such as shocks of various nature.

     The share of non-observable economy in Georgia is great enough. According to various estimations it differs from 30 up to 40% of total output in the economy as a whole and more than 50% - in the business sphere. The major tool of estimation of scales of non-observable economy are employment surveys of population. In 1995-2001 special surveys of some sectors of the Georgian economy within the framework of TACIS program were carried out. Their results have allowed to correct, for instance, indicators of production and import of tobacco, volumes of construction and services in health and educational spheres.

     Kazakhstan's economic policy in the sphere of attracting foreign investments in 1993-2003 is considered in the article. Special attention is paid to the analysis of their macroeconomic efficiency. It is concluded that high rates of economic growth in Kazahkstan in 2000-2003 are conditioned not so much by the inflow of foreign investments as by exchange rate and currency policies of monetary authorities of the country. The tendency of growing interfirm indebtedness and negative balance of current accounts in favor of foreign investors is also analyzed.

     Problems of managing risks of partnership in banks taking into account the new Central Bank of Russia document "On Organization of Internal Control in Credit Organizations and Bank Groups" are considered in the article. It is pointed out that effective bank risk management including risks of partnership сan be realized only under condition of bona fide competition. Functioning of banks in competitive environment is impossible without risks, their monitoring allows to become competitive on the banking services market if various "black lists" and other unsound negative information leading to lowering the level of liquidity of a credit organization are absent. Methods of managing risks of partnership that become all the more complex under the influence of technological innovations (in particular, the development of operations with credit derivatives) are also analyzed.

     The complex system of evaluation of risks that present danger for enterprise operations is grounded in the article. Its implementation would allow not only to curtail possible losses but to make corresponding strategic decisions aimed at their minimization in the long-term.

     Number of vice-premiers in a transitional country is an indicator of political weakness of the cabinet pointing out political and economic instability. So one can trace its connection with some economic data. Regression analysis has allowed to reveal significant correlation between the number of vice-premiers in the Russian government and the following socio-economic indicators: CPI (negative relation), money used by population to buy currency, strike participants number, unemployment, officially registered unemployed, officially registered unemployed on the dole (all - positive relation). The vice-premier growing number is connected positively with budget deficit growth that is another argument in favor of the thesis that such a number reflects government weakness.