• N. Krasnopeeva, E. Nazrullaeva, A. Peresetsky, E. Shchetinin — To export or not to export? The link between the exporter status of a firm and its technical efficiency in Russia’s manufacturing sector

The article is devoted to the analysis of factors and parameters that led to the recession of the Russian economy in 2014—2016. Economic downturn can be considered as a result of combination of external and internal shocks — negative changes in the terms of trade, Western economic sanctions imposed on Russia and its countersanctions. Measures and instruments of regulators used for neutralization of negative effects of shocks are considered. The article analyzes the adaptation of domestic production, consumption, savings and investments to changing terms and conditions of reproduction. The most probable directions of expanding domestic production after the end of the recession are outlined too.

JEL: E2, E6, F4, G1.
Keywords: economic growth, macroeconomic trend, branch of the economy, consumption, investment, economic crisis, general financial markets, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy.

This paper shows the cyclical evolution of energy prices and energy costs share with cycles lasting 25—30 years. Energy costs constants, i.e. stable over long time energy costs to income ratio, are the center of ‘economic gravitation’. Cycles and energy affordability thresholds are found in all major final energy use sectors manifesting the ‘minus one’ phenomenon, which shows that cycle-long energy intensity changes as much as real energy prices. Energy affordability thresholds and asymmetric price elasticities are important factors determining the existence of the turning points towards the center of ‘economic gravitation’ in the cyclic evolution of energy costs shares. The cyclical nature of energy price dynamics has been manifesting for five centuries and experienced multiple technological transitions and changes in the energy mix.

JEL: E25, E3, N7, O1, O4, O5, P52, Q3, Q4.
Keywords: economic cycles, energy prices, energy costs share, energy intensity, price elasticity, energy affordability thresholds.

Inverse cyclical relations of trends in distribution of GDP between labor and capital components of value added (between compensation of employees, on the one hand, and gross operating surplus plus gross mixed income, on the other hand) to the trends in supply of labor and capital in the economy are elaborated in the article. Long waves and globalization influence on the economic policy of the USA and on personal income distribution in the country as well as economic, social and political consequences of such distribution are subjects of in-depth analysis. Adjustment of income distribution is presented in the article as a key problem to be solved by economics and form a part of the economic strategy adequate to the realities of the 21st century.

JEL: E62, E64, F62, H20, H23, H50, I00, J20, J60, O30, O50, O51, Z13.
Keywords: income distribution, labor, capital, compensation of employees, gross operating surplus, gross mixed income, long waves, ICT, competition, economic policy, social structure of society, USA, developed countries, developing countries.

This study evaluates the channels of crises transmission from Russia to the CIS countries on the basis of a Bayesian vector autoregression model. The empirical base of the study consists of 11 macroeconomic indicators of the CIS countries on quarterly data for the period from 2002 to 2015. It has been revealed that the monetary channel of transmission plays the main role. The economy of the CIS countries reacts stronger to the financial stress in Russia than the Russian economy itself, and over time the impact of the financial stress in Russia on the economy of the CIS countries only increases on average by 1.5—2 times throughout the year.

JEL: Е58, F47, G18.
Keywords: financial integration, CIS countries, Bayesian vector autoregression model, crisis, transmission channel.

In this paper the authors clarify the concept of "national interest", for the sake of which the embargo on food deliveries to Russia was introduced on August 7, 2014. Its impact on Russian agricultural producers, consumers and countries under embargo has been estimated. We find that the embargo had a positive effect on producers of agricultural products and a negative one on consumers. The economies of the countries under embargo have not suffered in general — the share of food in their exports increased as they managed to reorient them on other markets. In Russia the effect of the embargo was influenced by ruble devaluation which encouraged consumers to choose domestic food instead of imported one as less expensive. Growth of Russian production, especially meat, in conditions of decrease of solvent demand has led to changes in price trends. The possibility of food re-export to Russia has become an external positive effect of the embargo for other countries. Using other priorities when choosing countersanctions could make them more targeted having less negative impact on the population of Russia.

JEL: N70, O13, Р33, Q17, Q18.
Keywords: food embargo, agricultural producers, importers, consumers, choice of countersanctions.

This article discusses the factors that affect the chances of a favorable resolution of claims to the WTO dispute settlement. Drawing on several hundreds of complaints received by the WTO since the establishment of the organization and till 2014, we demonstrate that the developing countries have a smaller probability of successful resolution in the dispute than the developed countries. This inequality can be explained by differences in the size of economies (GDP), but the paper shows that differences in the country’s experience of participation in WTO disputes have a higher predictive power.

JEL: F13, O24, P33, Q37.
Keywords: WTO, developed and developing countries, dispute settlement, trade policy.

Is it generally true that being an exporter for a firm is associated with a higher productivity? We study the relationship between firms’ export status and their technical efficiency in Russian manufacturing sector in 2004—2013 using the data from the Bureau van Dijk database "Ruslana". To estimate the exporter status effect we apply two methods, both based on the stochastic frontier analysis. The first approach estimates the effect as the marginal effect of the exporter status on technical efficiency. The second approach is based on the propensity score matching of exporting firms with non-exporting firms. We obtain robust results which suggest that the relationship between the exporter status and technical efficiency is positive. In both cases the exporter status’ effect is up to 0.03 (3 p. p.).

JEL: C21, C29, D22, D24, L25, O19.
Keyworlds: stochastic frontier, Russian firms, technical efficiency, learning-by-exporting, propensity score matching.

Svetlana Kirdina (2013) defends the need to develop new version of holism — methodological institutionalism. This paper elaborates on this idea on the basis of comparative analysis of the opposing methodologies and suggests the concept of institutional configurations, i.e. models of interactions of institutions and their stakeholders in concrete economic space. Methodological institutionalism is considered as a methodology for the configuration mesoanalysis of social and economic systems holding intermediate position between holism and institutional individualism. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of the "switching mode" of methodologies between individualism and holism.

JEL: B50, B51, B52.
Keyworlds: methodological individualism, methodological holism, institutional individualism, methodological institutionalism, institutional configurations.