• O. Dmitrieva — Economic Turnovers and Financial Vacuum Cleaners
• A. Pestova — Predicting Turning Points of the Business Cycle: Do Financial Sector Variables Help?
• V. Gazman — The Impact of Alternative Models of Leasing on Financing Investments

• M. Likhachev — The Role of Behavioral Models in the Ontological Structure of Modern Macroeconomics

• A. Dubyansky — Parallel Money in the Russian Economic Literature of the XIX—XX centuries

• A. Aganbegyan — On Applying Scientific Methods While Solving Socio-economic Problems

• S. Smirnov — Industrial Output in the USSR and Russia, 1861—2012. Part II. Crises and Cycles

• M. Deryabina — Horizontal Economy: The Control Loops (On the book by B. Milner and T. Orlova "Organization of Innovation: Horizontal Communication and Management")

Abstracts

The coordination of economic activity at the global level is carried out through different mechanisms, which regulate activities of companies, states, international organizations. In spite of wide diversity of entrenched mechanisms of governance in different areas, they can be classified on the basis of key ­characteristics, including distribution of property rights, mechanisms of governance (in the narrow sense according to O. Williamson), mechanisms of expansion. This approach can contribute not only to classifying existing institutions but also to designing new ones. The modern aggravation of global problems may require rethinking mechanisms of global governance. The authors offer the universal framework for considering this problem and its possible solutions.

JEL classification: F02, F50.
Keywords: global governance, mechanisms of governance, global problems, global externalities.

The article shows the excessive role of offshores in Russia, which influence many sides of social and economic development of the country. Undertaken and outlined measures for solving problems of de-offshorization of the Russian economy taking into account new tendencies in anti-offshore policy of the international community in general and certain countries in particular in 2009—2013 are characterized. The necessity of system approach to de-offshorization problem is proved, specific actions in this area which can significantly increase federal budget revenues and strengthen national economic security are also offered.

JEL classification: F21, F53, G18, G38.
Keywords: offshore, de-offshorization of economy, anti-offshore policy, offshore financial networks, outflow of capital.

The paper considers different types of financial flows in the form of turnovers to imply the return to the starting point with direct or indirect losses. The dynamic schemes, volumes and losses of turnovers are examined: the financial turnover between federal budget, financial markets for budget surplus investments­ and financial markets for the budget deficit borrowings; pension turnover between the State Pension Fund, financial institutions for pensions’ savings and federal budget; the property turnover and the tax turnover for raw materials export. The total volume of turnovers is estimated as 15—19% of GDP with losses equal to 35% of federal budget expenditures.

JEL classification: G18, H20, H61, H62, H82, P44.
Keywords: budget, inflation, reserve fund, national wealth fund, taxation, pension fund, governmental property.

The objective of this study is to develop a system of leading indicators of the business cycle turning points for a wide range of countries, including Russia, over a period of more than thirty years. We use a binary choice model with the dependent variable of the state of economy: the recession, there is no recession. These models allow us to assess how likely is the change of macroeconomic dynamics from positive to negative and vice versa. Empirical analysis suggests that the inclusion of financial sector variables into equation can significantly improve the predictive power of the models of the turning points of business cycles. At the same time, models with financial and real sector variables obtained in the paper outperform the "naive" models based only on the leading indicator of GDP in the OECD methodology due to either a lower level of noise (recession model) or a higher predictive power (model of the recovery from recession).

JEL classification: E32, E37.
Keywords: business cycles, leading indicators, turning points, binary response models, macroeconomic crisis.

For the modernization of the economy some specific financial technologies can be useful. They have hardly been used in Russia, but can greatly increase the share of leasing in investment and attract domestic and foreign capital in new projects, including infrastructure, extend financial leverage of loans. This article explores the benefits of innovative models of leasing, theoretical and methodological aspects of their formation, identifies the criteria for using the proposed models, and conducts regression analysis of factors that influence the pricing of large-scale leasing projects. These models expand the line of investment products, promote competition between sources of funding of leasing.

JEL classification: G23, D22, F34.
Keywords: leveraged leasing, hire-purchase, lease-back, securitization, investment, syndicated lending, pricing.

Behavioral models are considered in the paper as the link between the description of the institutional structure of the economic system and the formation of macro-aggregates, reflecting the results of its operations. The degree of homogeneity of the private sector’s economic environment and complementary goals of private entities and government regulation are noted as basic characteristics of behavioral models. The author examines the differences in the estimates of these characteristics as one of the most important factors underpinning the architecture of modern macroeconomic models and their practical implications.

JEL classification: B22, B41, B50.
Keywords: macroeconomics, ontology, new classical macroeconomics, new Keynesian school, post Keynesian economics, post Walrasian macroeconomics.

The paper shows the role played by the concept of parallel money in understanding the evolution of the monetary circulation in Russia in the 19th and the beginning of the 20th century. As evidenced by historical investigations, the experience of parallel money circulation is both theoretically relevant and useful for the contemporary monetary practice.

JEL classification: B15, B25, B26.
Keywords: parallel currency, bimetallism, Gresham’s law, Russian monetary system.

Using the case of preparing solutions of different socio-economic problems the author on the basis of system analysis assesses their complexity, validity and target orientation. It is shown that many decisions do not take into account long-term effects and factors that are not directly related to the sphere of the given decision. The author pays special attention to the problem of training the personnel involved in the process of decision-making and its implementation. In conclusion the author tries to rank by their importance socio-economic decisions that are on the agenda.

JEL classification: Е02, Е61, Н12.
Keywords: system analysis, demographic policy, housing construction, petrochemistry, timber processing, economic effectiveness, socio-economic development.

Calculation of the aggregated "consensus" industrial production index has made it possible to date cyclical turning points and to measure the depth and length of the main industrial recessions in Russian Empire/USSR/Russia for the last century and a half. The most important causes of all these recessions are described. The cyclical volatility of Soviet/Russian industry is compared to that of American one.

JEL classification: E23, E32, N63, N64.
Keywords: economic cycle, economic crisis, stagnation, turning points, industrial production, USSR, Russia.

The paper provides an outline of the monograph by B. Z. Milner and T. M. Orlova. The background and the main directions of network affiliate market coordination development and appropriate methods of horizontal management are analyzed. Organizational and managerial features of the formation of innovative processes in the post-industrial economy are considered.

JEL classification: L220, O310, O320.
Keywords: innovation, horizontal communication, horizontal management, innovative businesses, clusters, strategic alliances, leadership.