• B. Chokaev — Islamic Finance: Opportunities for the Russian Economy

• P. Badasen, A. Isakov, A. Khazanov — Modern Monetary Policy: Relevant Criticism or Misunderstanding in the Expert Community?
• A. Shastitko — To Allow for Cartels?

• A. Zaostrovtsev — To Understand the Informal (On the Book by V. L. Tambovtsev "Economics of Informal Institutions")

• Bondarenko V. M. Crisis-free Development: Myth or Reality?

Abstracts

The article examines the state of production capacity of Russian industry. It is shown that in spite of certain positive shifts, the rate of technological modernization in recent years has been insufficient for marked progressive changes in the capacity structure and quality. In contrast to the industrial growth after the crisis of 1998 that took place in the presence of significant reserves of capacity, the current level of idle capacity is much lower. The lack of mass input of modern and high-tech industries objectively limits the possibilities of import substitution and economic growth.

JEL: E20, Е22, Е23, L60, О11.
Keywords: economic growth, investment, industrial capacity, input capacity, disposal capacity, capacity utilization, import substitution.

We develop a two-step methodology for analysis of FDI inflows into industries of Russian real sector, based on Heckman selection model. The methodology is related to the following important points: (1) it helps to take into account multilevel factors of FDI inflows (including firm-level, industrial and macroeconomic factors); (2) one can use it to forecast FDI inflows into industries. According to estimates, in 2015 FDI to Russian real sector is going to fall in most industries. This shall result in a significant shift in the FDI structure towards raw materials and energy sectors. However, in 2017 FDI will recover in most industries (including the shift back in the sectoral structure of FDI).

JEL: F21, C53.
Keywords: foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign companies, sectoral structure of FDI, Heckman selection model.

The article considers the development of the oil sector of the Russian economy, which plays a?leading role in forming state budget revenues and the country’s trade balance. It analyzes the main trends and the results of development of the Russian oil sector since 1990, including the production and refining of oil, oil export, domestic consumption of oil, the prices for oil and petroleum products, tax regulation. The author suggests measures for further development of the oil sector, including the improvements in the tax system.

JEL: L71, O13, P23, Q30, H20.
Keywords: oil sector, oil production, oil export, tax regulation, rent taxes.

The affordability of housing and utility services for the population of Russian Federation and foreign countries is analyzed in the article. The authors have developed the method which gives the opportunity to bring the housing and utility costs of the population of Russian Federation and foreign countries to comparable conditions. The main result is providing reliable distribution of the costs of the housing and utility services in European countries, where Russian Federation has one of the lowest positions. So, existing substantiation of freezing tariffs for housing and utility services is ungrounded. There is a socio-economic opportunity to raise tariffs for increasing investment attractiveness of the sector. There is also a need for redistribution of the population spending between housing and utility services in favor of the former.

JEL: P52.
Keywords: housing service, utility service, affordability, Russia, European countries, tariff regulation.

The paper examines how female employment influences the women’s desire and probability to give birth to the second or third child. The research is based on the data of Russian Monitoring Longitudinal Survey of 2000—2009. The main conclusions stem from multinomial and probit regression analysis and show that having a job as well as high wage and a big number of working hours negatively associate with having two children for a female in Russia. However, for employed women the most important thing influencing childbirth decision is the wage size of both spouses/partners.

JEL: J11, J13, J21, J31.
Keywords: employment, fertility factors, motherhood, social policy.

The article discusses the prospects for the development of the financial system and the economy, associated with the emergence of Islamic finance industry in the country. The author briefly describes the important features of Islamic finance, examines the main obstacles for functioning of Islamic financial institutions in the Russian legislation. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the economic benefits from the creation of economic infrastructure, which enables Islamic financial companies to operate on equal conditions with other subjects of the financial system in terms of financial, tax and administrative aspects.

JEL: E210, G210, G240.
Keywords: Islamic finance, financial system, financial instruments.

In this paper we provide the analysis of monetary policy issues on which the expert community and the authorities do not have common point of view. We suggest arguments supporting the Bank of Russia’s position regarding the interpretation of current economic situation and we also respond to the critique concerning the inconsistency and the lack of transparency of monetary policy.

JEL: E52, E58, E65.
Keywords: monetary policy, Taylor rule, potential output, key interest rate

Opportunities for cartels study within the context of comparative analysis of mechanisms of governance structural alternatives are shown. The correlation between cartels and horizontal agreements restricting competition is described. Characteristics of antitrust control regimes of horizontal agreements are identified. The Russian agenda for cartel deterrence is presented.

JEL: B41, D43, L41, L44.
Keywords: cartel, horizontal agreements, antimonopoly policy, hybrid institutional arrangements.

The review considers the first attempt in the history of Russian economic thought to give a detailed analysis of informal institutions (IF). It recognizes that in general it was successful: the reader gets acquainted with the original classification of institutions (including informal ones) and their genesis. According to the reviewer the best achievement of the author is his interdisciplinary approach to the study of problems and, moreover, his bias on the achievements of social psychology because the model of human behavior in the economic mainstream is rather primitive. The book makes evident that namely this model limits the ability of economists to analyze IF. The reviewer also shares the author’s position that in the analysis of the IF genesis the economists should highlight the uncertainty and reject economic determinism. Further discussion of IF is hardly possible without referring to this book.

JEL: B40, B41, B52.
Keywords: informal institutions, classification of institutions, rules enforcement mechanisms, representation of institutions, experimental economics, game models, genesis of informal institutions.