• M. Stolbov — Some Findings of the Empirical Analysis of the 2008—2009 Global Crisis Determinants
• E. Rustamov — Financial Crises: Sources, Manifestations, Consequences
• N. Zubarevich — Post-Crisis Development: Regional Aspects
• D. Shapot, V. Malakhov — The Impact of Commodities Export Prices on Perspectives of Russia’s Economy Development

• A. Akaev — A Strategy of Integrated Modernization of the Russian Economy for the Period up to 2025.
• O. Golichenko — Models of Development Based on Technology Diffusion
• A. Kalinin — Building a Balanced Industrial Policy: Issues of Structuring Goals, Tasks and Tools

• O. Kiyutsina — State Support of Modernization of Big Business Branches
• V. Vasilenok, N. Shapiro — Methodological Aspects of the Training Course "Modern Economic Conceptions"


Abstracts

Literature on post-socialist transformation usually deals with the political, economic and social sides of it. But the relative advantages of capitalist and socialist systems in terms of the incentives for entrepreneurship and innovation process attracted less attention. It is well known that every revolutionary new product (for civilian use) has been brought about by the capitalist system and that the socialist system was capable at most of developing new military products. Innovation has deeply transformed our daily lives but many people, while deeming all these changes favorable, seldom discern the causal relation between the capitalist system and rapid technical progress. The usual syllabus of microeconomics does not enlighten students on this important virtue of capitalism, neither is it adequately emphasized in the statements of leading politicians. The article analyzes how far the radical difference between socialist and capitalist innovation can be explained by the innate tendencies and basic attributes of the two systems and provides strong arguments in favor of capitalism.

JEL classification: C51, E44, E66, F40, G01.
Keywords: capitalist system, socialist system, innovation, technical progress, Schumpeterian entrepreneurship.

The paper synthesizes the results of the empirical research of the 2008—2009 global economic crisis determinants. Some of them are additionally tested and specified. In particular, the so called decoupling hypothesis is suggested to be split into weak and strong forms: the developing economies appear to have been vulnerable to the global crisis, but in a lesser degree than the OECD countries. Trade determinants of the crisis haven’t proved their dominant significance over financial channel factors. Public debt relative to GDP is a new variable on the crisis determinants list, as it limited the scale of stabilizing policies during the crisis due to growing risks of violating public finance resilience. The paper also shows that the probability of a new crisis comparable to the 2008—2009 global recession has not reduced and poses a serious challenge to the world economy now.

JEL classification: P1, P2, P51, O30, O31.
Keywords: global economic crisis, decoupling hypothesis, financial channel of the crisis, trade channel of the crisis, international reserves, terms of trade.

Building on the empirical studies and financial crises theories, a general framework describing the mechanisms of crisis formation and transmission is developed. Factors of crisis formation include external and internal imbalances, shocks, deficiencies of economic policies and changes in the economic agents’ behavior (in particular, as concerns price bubbles formation and burst). Channels of crisis transmission include direct links between financial organizations; "negative loss spirals" arising from massive asset sales; increase in uncertainty. The framework is employed to the analysis of several crisis episodes in 1990s and 2000s (Mexican, Asian, Russian and Argentine crises). The channels of crisis transmission to the real economy are also considered. The approaches to measuring both short- and long-term impact of crises on fiscal stability and economic growth are discussed.

JEL classification: E6, G1.
Keywords: financial crises, price bubbles, macroeconomic policy.

The article deals with post-crisis development in Russian regions. Dynamics of regional output, investments and employment in 2008—2011 was determined by objective factors (economic specialization, level of development and location) and specific government policy measures. The impact of objective factors was stronger for the most regions, and competitive regions overcame the crisis easier. For a number of underdeveloped territories federal aid again turned out to be the safety cushion. Top-priority government projects played the same role for some regions. The crisis hasn’t affected their development as much as it could have.

JEL classification: E24, E60, H50, J08, J68, O52
Keywords: Russian, regional economy, crisis, industry, investment, employment, FDI.

The article gives quantitative assessments of macroeconomic consequences of the deviations of commodities export prices from the levels expected by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. A method for evaluation of key macroeconomic indicators sensitivity to commodities export prices changes is developed. A dynamic optimization model for ready analysis of the export prices impact on the Russian economy development is submitted.

JEL classification: C61, E17.
Keywords: quantitative assessments, export prices, dynamic optimization model.

The article presents an analysis of strategies of Russian economic modernization. The following strategies are considered: "Innovation Russia-2020" developed by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development under the supervision of A. N. Klepach; "Strategy-2020" developed under the supervision of the Rector of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration V. A. Mau and the Rector of the National Research University "Higher School of Economics" Ya. I. Kuzminov; Russian Economy Modernization Strategy proposed by academician V. M. Polterovich; Strategy of Advance Development of Russia suggested by academician S. Yu. Glaziev, and the Balanced Development Strategy developed by academician R. I. Nigmatulin. The article also presents a strategy of modernization basing on innovation-technological breakthrough developed by the author of the present article. In conclusion the article suggests ways to synthesize relevant models and ideas of the abovementioned strategies and develop a strategy of integrated (according to the classification proposed by prominent Chinese economist He Chuantsi) modernization of the Russian economy for the period up to 2025.

JEL classification: E60, O11.
Keywords: innovations, modernization, development, human capital, productivity, innovation-technological breakthrough, industrial policy, integrated modernization policy, R&D sphere, engineering staff.

The problems of multifold increase of technological potential of developing countries are considered in the article. To solve them, i.e. to organize effectively tapping into global knowledge and their absorption, the performance of two diffusion channels is considered: open knowledge transfer and commercial knowledge transfer. The models of technological catching-up are investigated. Two of them are found to give an opportunity of effective use of international competition and global technology knowledge as a driver of technology development.

JEL classification: O33.
Keywords: global technology diffusion, models of development, international competition.

Industrial policy, defined as state activity aimed at achieving structural changes in national industry, doesn’t get a unanimous support from economists. The primary reason for criticism lays in insufficient efficiency of interventions. This inefficiency is mainly caused by lobbying and, thus, controversy of state policy. In this paper a possible way of reconciling the goals, objects and tools to create a harmonious and balanced industrial policy is proposed.

JEL classification: L50, L52.
Keywords: industrial policy, state support, social and economic development.