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2013

¹ 3

MACROECONOMY



ECONOMY AND ORGANIZATION OF SCIENCE


INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION


IN THE WAKE OF OUR PUBLICATIONS


Abstracts

A. Kudrin. The Influence of Oil and Gas Exports on Russia’s Monetary Policy

The article studies the problems of implementing monetary policy in the environment of a significant inflow of foreign currency revenues from exports of commodities into the country. It shows that in the conditions of strong balance of payments the Central Bank is forced to accept either the appreciation of the ruble or inflation. Only the government of Russia has at its disposal a powerful tool that allows both to prevent the appreciation of the local currency and to contain inflation at the same time. This dual task is solved by means of saving some part of oil and gas revenues in reserve funds during favorable situations on foreign markets. Such a policy lays the foundation for macroeconomic stability and ensures investment attractiveness of the Russian economy.

JEL classification: E52, E58, E61.
Keywords: monetary policy, oil and gas dependency, Dutch disease, reserve fund, inflation.

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O. Dmitrieva. Deformation of Fiscal Policy and Debt Management as a Result of the Stabilization Fund Forming

The article shows the systematic mistake in the form of underestimation of project budget revenues. It is accompanied by the artificial increase in budget deficit which causes excessive borrowings and debt growth while in fact budget surplus takes place. It is proved that state borrowing and saving of assets in the sovereign funds (Reserve Fund and National Wealth Fund) lead to a combination of negative effects related to both deficit and surplus budgets: artificial slowdown of economic growth and increase in expenses for debt service.

JEL classification: G18, H62, H63, H68.
Keywords: budget, national debt, reserve fund, national wealth fund.

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S. Vlasov, E. Deryugina, Yu. Vlasova. The Analysis of Russia’s Fiscal Sustainability in the Short- and Long Run

This paper examines the short- and long run Russia’s fiscal sustainability. It reveals the possible risks of the deterioration of the fiscal sustainability on the general budget level. The virtues and shortcomings of the new fiscal rules are analyzed, the comparison with the fiscal rules that had been suspended during the financial crisis is presented, and possibilities for further development of the new fiscal rules are discussed. The long run socio-economic development forecast is employed for these purposes.

JEL classification: E62, H68.
Keywords: fiscal sustainability, fiscal stress index, fiscal rules, general budget.

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B. Zamaraev, A. Nazarova. Inventory Management in Russian Economy: Crisis and Post-crisis Adjustment

The article considers the stock changes and their relationship to changes in economic activity. Comprehensive statistical analysis covers accounting data, which are compiled on a quarterly basis, in relation with annual data of the system of national accounts. Methodological approaches to using composite leading indexes of economic activity to forecast future changes in inventories and explain turning points in their trend are examined. The article analyzes changes in inventory for 2005—2011 (in general and for different types of inventory) in the context of such approaches. It also presents international comparisons of inventory levels.

JEL classification: B41, E32, G31, L16, M11, M41, O11.
Keywords: inventories, production cycle, holding gains, SNA, indices of economic activity, macroeconomic trend, branch of economy, USA, euro area.

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I. Dezhina, A. Ponomarev. 1000 Laboratories: New Principles to Organize Scientific Research in Russia

The article analyzes reforms of organizational structure of Russian science in the post-Soviet period. The authors suggest a new model of organizing research groups with the aim to increase international competitiveness of Russian science. The development of possible versions of organization of such groups was based on unfocused interviews with prominent Russian scholars and representatives of Russian-speaking research diaspora. Major principles of functioning of new laboratories are analyzed, including the linkages with host institutions, financial, human resources, and gover­nance aspects, as well as procedures for monitoring and evaluation.

JEL classification: O32, O38.
Keywords: Russia, science, organizational structure, laboratory, international experience, financing, expertise, evaluation.

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A. Kuznetsov. Organizational Measures for the Growth of Research Efficiency in Russia

The author analyses shortcomings of some important organizational reforms of R&D sector in modern Russia. In accordance with the OECD countries experience and Russian practice, the author suggests alternative measures to increase research efficiency in Russia. He recommends to give up incentives for R&D in second-rate universities and modernize the structure of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Special attention is paid to the specifics of various sciences while estimating of current conditions and elaborating steps to promote their international competitiveness.

JEL classification: I23, O32.
Keywords: R&D, organization of research activities, university science, Russian Academy of Sciences, scientists’ strategies of internationalization

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A. Vernikov. National Champions and the Competitive Structure of the Russian Banking Market

We assess the effect that the industrial policy of growing state-controlled national champions in Russia had on concentration and competitiveness of the banking system in 2000—2012. A modified method of calculating the indicators of market concentration suggests that the main segments of the market have crossed the threshold of high concentration, whereas the household deposits market has approached a monopoly situation. Supremacy of public banks enhances their market power and enables collecting rent that boosts profitability. We suggest that Russia’s industrial policy in banking might be similar to that of China.

JEL classification: G21, G28, L11, L13, P52.
Keywords: Russia, state-owned banks, public sector, industrial policy, market structure, HHI.

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N. Kosareva, T. Polidi, A. Puzanov. Housing Construction Market in the Russian Federation: Current Status and Development Prospects

The authors analyze peculiarities of the housing construction market in modern Russia, incentives of actors in such markets. The efficiency of the existing state regulation is being assessed. The authors conclude that housing construction­ sector is characterized by serious deficiencies and ineffective regulation. The key parameters of the housing construction market do not meet the needs of the economy and the Russian society.

JEL classification: R31, L13.
Keywords: housing construction, housing market, competition, monopoly.

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A. Gribkov, D. Zakharchenko, A. Kornienko. Competitiveness of Russia’s Machine-tool Industry

The paper considers the competitiveness of Russia’s machine-tool industry on the world and domestic markets. The authors have conducted a comparative analysis of machine-tool sector and products in Russia, developed and new industrial countries, using specific indicators that characterize its competitiveness. The results of the analysis testify to low competitiveness of Russia’s machine-tool industry and an average level of competitiveness of its products in limited segments of machine-tool manufacturing. The main obstacle in the way of increasing the competitiveness of this sector and expanding the product range are adverse financial conditions for investments into machine-tool industry and other low-profit industrial sectors.

JEL classification: L64.
Keywords: machine-tool industry, competitiveness, products, capital assets, investment, innovation.

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I. Kotliarov. How Can Farmers Get Access to Customers?

The paper analyzes the models of direct interaction between producers and customers of farmers’ products. We demonstrate that the most effective ways of distribution of these products are servicization of retail, e-commerce, vending and direct purchase activity of retailers. The most effective state strategy aimed at supporting farmers’ access to end customers should be the stimulation of these channels of distribution development.

JEL classification: Q13, Q18, M31.
Keywords: farmers products, servicization, e-commerce, vending, direct purchase.

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A. Rakviashvili. In Defense of the Euro: Austrian School Approach (comment)

The article critically analyzes theoretical arguments in favor of gold standard, the euro and fixed exchange rates that were set out in the article of H. Huerta de Soto ‘In Defense of the Euro: Austrian School Approach’ (Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2012. No 11). Monetary systems alternative to the gold standard are considered. It is shown that they are at least as much supported by liberal economists as the gold standard. The author emphasizes weakness of euro and gold standard and proves necessity of scaled reforms before the gold standard or alternative monetary system with the same characteristics may be implemented.

JEL classification: E31, E42, E50.
Keywords: gold standard, free banking, euro, deflation, fixed exchange rates, Austrian school.

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