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Journal indexing




2016

¹ 1

MACROECONOMIC POLICY


INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH


ISSUES OF THEORY


ECONOMIC HISTORY

E. Gurvich, I. Prilepskiy. The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy

The paper looks into the impact of the Western financial sanctions on the Russian economy. The results of modeling of capital flow components (taking into account the influence of other factors, including the fall in oil prices) demonstrate that, apart from the direct effect of constraints on foreign funding for sanctioned state-controlled banks, oil, gas and arms companies, there is also a significant indirect effect of lower inflows of foreign direct investment and worsening funding conditions for non-sanctioned companies. The overall negative effect on gross capital inflow in 2014—2017 is estimated at about $280bn. However, the effect on net capital inflow is significantly lower ($160—170bn) thanks to self-adjustment of Russian companies evident in utilization of foreign assets accumulated earlier for debt repayment and overall decrease in gross capital outflow. The estimated sanctions’ effect on GDP is significant (–2.4 p.p. by 2017 as compared to hypothetical scenario without sanctions) but 3.3 times lower than the estimated effect of oil price shock.

JEL: F32, F37, F47.
Keywords: financial sanctions, balance of payments adjustment, external debt, capital flows.

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L. Grigoryev , A. Kurdin. Unresolved issue of private property legitimacy in Russia

Private property exists in Russia for almost 25 years. However, the legitimacy of established property rights and the legitimacy of private property as an institution remain ambiguous. Despite the change of generations and the improvement of living standards, numerous opinion polls show that the majority of Russians refers negatively not only to the privatization of the 1990s and its results, but also to private property in general. Positive forecasts on the adaptation of people to new reality do not come true. The authors analyze the reasons and consequences of private property illegitimacy and compare alternative ways of its legitimating. The main conclusion is the uselessness of any discretionary state intervention in this long-lasting process, while the focus should be put on the mitigation of inequality and the enforcement of formal institutions without any exceptions or privileges.

JEL: P14, P26.
Keywords: protection of property rights, private property, legitimacy.

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A. Buzgalin, A. Kolganov. Planification: Potential and role in XXI century market economy

The authors, basing on a critical analysis of the experience of planning during the 20th century in a number of countries of Europe and Asia, and also on the lessons from the economics of "real socialism", set out to substantiate their conclusions on the advisability of "reloading" this institution. The aim is to create planning mechanisms, suited to the new economy, that incorporate forecasting, projections, direct and indirect selective regulation and so forth into integral programs of economic development and that set a vector of development for particular limited spheres of what remains on the whole a market economy. New planning institutions presuppose a supersession of the forms of bureaucratic centralism and a reliance on network forms of organization of the subject and process of planning.

JEL: O200, P110, P170.
Keywords: planning, late capitalism, forecasting, selective state regulation.

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E. Borisova, A. Kulkova. Culture, names and economic development

Various components of culture have long been in the focus of economic research. Numerous empirical studies show that cultural norms, as well as religion and language, matter for economic development and have not only statistical but also economic significance. This paper considers various examples of how culture can affect individual values and behavior. It also deals with personal names as a key marker of one’s cultural identity. Overall, the paper contributes to the more profound understanding of a famous notion that "culture matters", and helps clarify the mechanisms through which culture exerts its influence.

JEL: Z10, O10.
Keywords: culture, cultural norms, trust, religion, names, economic development.

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A. Belianin, I. Denisova. Poverty is no crime, but a problem to study (Nobel Memorial Prize in economics 2015 — Angus Deaton)

The Nobel Prize in Economics in 2015 was awarded to Angus Deaton for his studies of consumer behavior, poverty and welfare. The paper provides an explanation of Deaton’s key academic achievements and his contribution to economics and policy making in the area of micro data collection and analysis.

JEL: C81, D1, D31, D91, F63, I15, I31.
Keywords: theory of consumer behavior, permanent income hypothesis, poverty, inequality, Almost Ideal Demand System, longitudinal studies, Nobel Memorial Prize in economics.

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G. Kleiner. Sustainability of Russian economy in the mirror of the system economic theory (Part 2)

This article is the second part of the paper published in the previous issue of the journal. In the first part of the article we presented the basic problem of economic sustainability in the strategic perspective, from the viewpoint of the system economic theory. In the second part of the article we discuss the capabilities of this theory as a tool for analyzing the sustainability of the economy and its principal subsystems. We explore the potential of the four system sectors of the economy (object, project, process and environment) for stimulating its development and stabilization. A model for the distribution of role functions of the system sectors of the economy at various stages of the crisis cycle is proposed, ensuring the balanced development of the economy. The special role of its object sector as an active subsystem supporting the stability and diversification in the economy is explained. The multilayer structure of economic subjects is considered as the framework of the national economy, the development of which is especially important during the crisis and post-crisis stages of the crisis cycle. Therefore, the need to strengthen the subject framework of the economy is highlighted, paying particular attention to industries as the subjects of mesoeconomy. On the basis of that, reforms in the organization of government and management are suggested, and recommendations are formulated on the major principles of economic policy regarding the sustainability of the national economy.

JEL: B4, B5, E32, L53, O1.
Keywords: economic sustainability, system economic theory, crisis cycle, sectors of the economy, system economic balance.

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M. Levin , I. Sheveleva. Foreign concessions in the Soviet Union of the 1920s: "Why split up"?

Foreign concessions in the USSR existed for a very short period of 8—9 years. The paper considers some causes behind the closure of the concession companies that happened despite the assurances of the Soviet authorities allegedly desiring to attract foreign investment and technology. One of these causes — conflicts between the concessions’ administrations and trade unions in the enterprises; the other refers to the intentionally limited access to financial resources.

JEL: N34, N42, N44, N82, N84.
Keywords: Soviet economic history, concessions, labor conflicts, trade unions, NEP, public policy, foreign investment.

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