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2005
№ 1

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MACROECONOMY

HOUSING MARKET

DEBATING-SOCIETY

NOBEL PRIZE LAUREATES

CRITIQUE AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
  • Management: Theory and Practice in Russia. A Textbook. Ed. by A. Porshnev, M. Razu, A. Tikhomirova
  • S. Valentei, L. Nesterov. Society Development in the Theory of Social Alter natives


Abstracts


V. MAU. Economic Policy in 2004: in Search of a Model of Growth Consolidation

     In 1991, when Russia opened again, the world became a global world, where the regions organised by metropolises turned into global economic players. According to the newest research, a metropolis is an urban centre of not less than a million of inhabitants, concentrating upper service and control functions, disseminating prosperity to its hinterland and acting as "commutator" with the world economy. Empirical evidence shows that the existence of one or a few metropolises is the important condition of the wealth and competitiveness of countries. The paper investigates the question whether the overcentralised and non-metropolised post-Soviet economic space could become a mighty global economic player. The transformation of some Russian big cities besides Moscow into real metropolises is required in that respect.


R. AHREND. The Sources of Post-crisis Economic Growth in Russia

     This paper provides an in depth analysis of Russia's recent growth, with a view to understanding the prospects for its continuation. A key finding is that the role of the oil sector, and particularly privately owned oil companies, has been vastly more important in driving economic growth since 2001 than the official data suggest. The paper further argues that prudent post-crisis fiscal policy has also been essential for creating a macroeconomic environment conducive to strong growth. Looking forward, it is argued that given its economic structure Russia is bound to remain a heavily resource dependent economy for some time to come. This reality largely defines the most important challenges facing Russian policy-makers as they seek to create a framework for sustained growth.


G. FETISOV. Official Reserves of Russia: Volume, Structure, Management

     Criteria of sufficiency of gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia are considered in the article. Their minimum size by different criteria is equal to 25 bln. USD. So the Central Bank of Russia can trade part of these reserves for Russian Federation's debts to foreign countries. It is also possible to use gold and foreign exchange reserves to refinance commercial banks credits to exporters and implement modernization projects in the economy. This will decrease foreign borrowings of the private sector, improve structure and efficiency of using gold and foreign exchange reserves without damaging stability of the ruble.


V. POLTEROVICH, O. STARKOV, Е. CHRENYKH. Contractual Savings for Housing: A Mortgage Institution for Russia

     The paper argues that introduction of сontractual savings for housing (CSH) - bausparkassen and building and loan cooperatives - is an essential institutional stage in the process of mass mortgage market formation. An attempt to skip over it is a costly mistake and almost doomed to failure. Given an active government support CSH become a primary school of saving and loan behavior for millions and an effective tool for selection and education of steady borrowers for the banking system. In a short period of time they allow to increase substantially aggregate savings. CSH facilitate people's access to credit market and its further institutional evolution. To prove these conclusions the authors investigate specific features of housing markets, the role of CSH in development of housing finances in advanced economies, analyze recent experience of East European countries and numerous attempts to create the mortgage market in Russia in 1992-2003.


Marx's Heritage and the Modern Economic Science (The "Round Table" of "Voprosy Economiki")

     The "round table" held by "Voprosy Economiki" was devoted to urgency of Marx's scientific heritage. The articles by E. Gajdar and V. Mau, A. Buzgalin and A. Kolganov, L. Grebnev published in 2004 were in the focus of discussion. The session was conducted by the editor-in-chief academician L. Abalkin. Theoretical questions of the importance of K. Marx's and F. Engels' contribution in the world economic science, of modern opportunities of using marxist approach, of adequacy of the labor theory of value and the theory of surplus value were debated. Opinions differed: a number of participants supported Marx's economic concepts while others spoke about its conformity to realities of XIX century, and not those of the end of XX - the beginning of XXI centuries. The question of dogmatism of Marx's doctrine and the necessity of its creative revisionism was also risen. The question of "liberal marxism" as a basis for further development of modern liberalism was actively discussed. Certain attention was paid to the problem of "secular religiousness" of marxism - its acceptance as the official national ideology and its spreading as a specific religion among the population.
   The first part of the session is introduced including the presentations by O. Anan'in, S. Dzarasov, T. Oizerman, G. Bagaturiya, A. Chepurenko, V. Kulikov, V. Mezhuev, M. Voeikov, G. Gloveli, V. Kudrov, L. Vasina.


E. BALASHOVA. Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott: Driving Forces behind Economic Cycles (2004 Nobel Prize in Economics)

     The method of analyzing and modeling cyclical fluctuations of economy initiated by F. Kydland and E. Prescott - the 2004 Nobel Prize winners in Economics - is considered in the article. They proposed a new business cycle theory integrating the theory of long-run economic growth as well as the microeconomic theory of consumers and firms behavior. Simple version of general dynamic and stochastic macroeconomic model is described. The given approach which was formulated in their fundamental work "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations" (1982) gave rise to an extensive research program and is still used as a basic instrument for investigating cyclical processes in economy nowadays.


O. ZAMULIN. The Concept of Real Economic Cycles and Its Role in Evolution of Macroeconomics

     The article discusses the contribution of the 2004 Nobel Prize winners in Economics, F. Kydland and E. Prescott, to business cycle theory. To place this contribution in historical perspective, development of macroeconomic science at large, beginning with 1930s, is discussed, including the early Keynesian theories, rational expectations revolution, and the modern debate between New Keynesians and New Classicals. Special emphasis is then made on the differences between the modern general equilibrium theories proposed by Kydland and Prescott and the supporters of theories based on sticky prices and imperfect information. The article is concluded by a discussion of room for consensus between these two branches of macroeconomics.





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