• I. Pilipenko — The Use of Cost—Benefit Analysis for Evaluating Efficiency of Public Investment Projects (The Case of Sochi-2014 Winter Olympic Games)
• M. Stolbov — Statistics of Search Queries in Google as an Indicator of Financial Conditions

• B. Porfiriev, V. Kattsov — Implications of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Russia: Assessment and Forecast

• V. Gel’bras — Russia and China: The Inevitability of Crucial Changes
• A. Gruzdev — Financing Platforms of Local Governments and Their Role in Credit Boom in China in 2009—2010

• G. Tsagolov — The Great Chinese Convergence (On the New Book by E. P. Pivovarova «Socialism with Chinese Specifics»)
• M. Yudkevich — Avner Greif: A Model for Assembly (On the Book «Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade»)

• T. Omel'chuk — Providing Long-term Stability of Russia's Pension System

• Russian Worker: Education, Profession, Qualification / Ed. by V. E. Gimpel'son, R. I. Kapelyushnikov

Abstracts

The article deals with three possible scenarios of modernization — modernization from above, strong dash (modernization from below) and evolution (modernization from below but without a strong dash). The author points out that the last one is the most preferable for Russia, because step by step adaptation to new institutions mostly eliminates the possibility of a roll back. In the end the author suggests how could the economy develop in these diverse cases during the four ongoing decades.

In this paper that is a transcript of a lecture held to commemorate the 250^th anniversary of Adam Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments the author who is a Nobel Prize winner in economics reflects on the relevance of this classic. He shows that Smith proposed a historical approach to institutional transformations as opposed to the authors who tried to advance a system of ideal institutions. The importance of Smith’s views on impartiality in ethical evaluation of social conditions and in building a just society is also emphasized.

The paper is dedicated to the gift-exchange as a mode of organization. A local community with a long-term cooperation as a result of the informal enforcement is analyzed as an environment which presupposes dominance of the reciprocity. Among others relations between patron and client, master and slave are considered. The importance of a planning horizon for the rational choice of a means of organization is studied. Reciprocity is analyzed as an element of the relational contracting.

The paper analyzes shortcomings of economic impact studies based mainly on input— output models that are often employed in Russia as well as abroad. Using studies about sport events in the USA and Olympic Games that took place during the last 30 years we reveal advantages of the cost—benefit analysis approach in obtaining unbiased assessments of public investments’ efficiency; the step-by-step method of cost—benefit analysis is presented in the paper as well. We employ the project of Sochi-2014 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in Russia to evaluate its efficiency using cost—benefit analysis for five accounts (areas of impact), namely government, households, environment, economic development, and social development, and calculate the net present value of the project taking into account its possible alternatives. In conclusion we suggest several policy directions that would enhance public investment efficiency within the Sochi-2014 Olympics.

The article deals with opportunities and limits of Google search queries statistics as an indicator of financial conditions. The methodological issues and empirical results of the use of such indicators in foreign countries are discussed. It is shown that this statistics should be incorporated in an econometric model of individuals’ deposit growth in Russia. A composite indicator of financial situation allowing for shifts in financial expectations of individuals and entities is also proposed. It is proved that such measures may be good complements for traditional indicators to monitor financial conditions, which are based on the interview method.

Comprehensive assessment of macroeconomic implications of climate change in Russia by 2030 including the authors’ original evaluations and forecasts is provided in the article. The weather and climate fluctuations impact on dynamics and qualitative indicators of selective industries of the Russian economy is contemplated in depth. Key directions and a set of measures of their adaptation to this impact along with those for reducing the climate change risks to the national economy are analyzed. It is argued that including the climate change factor into the development policy and industry and services’ modernization projects in Russia, particularly its consideration while introducing technological innovations are both necessary and economically effective. The role of science and scientific organizations as principal institutions and drivers of adaptation of the Russian economy and society as a whole to climate change is especially emphasized.

Absolute domination of the state in a national economy defines radical difference of Russia and China from the majority of other countries. Here the similarity of the two countries as a matter of fact comes to an end. China has created the economy focused on export by means of unprecedented investments into fixed capital. In the country for a long time the interests of domestic market and basic requirements of the population have been ignored. Russia grounds its export economy on the development of raw materials and power generation sectors with limited creation of new branches. In contrast to China in Russia the purpose of development has not been formulated, there is no idea uniting the people. In the end of 2009 a basic change in the Russian-Chinese cooperation took place. China persistently tries to transform Russia into a raw appendage of its economy.

The implementation of the anti-crisis program by the PRC State Council led to a credit boom in 2009—2010. The local governments’ specially established companies (financing platforms) were among the most vigorous borrowers. The article analyzes the influence of these companies on the banking system stability. The author concludes that the rapid accumulation of the financing platforms debt is mainly due to the revival of political lending and may result in a substantial increase of bad debt.